More importantly, who will win if Nato decides to declare war on Russia, the worlds most formidable nuclear power? This guiding principle puts all free nations around the world at risk, and necessitates that the United States as the leader of global democracies articulates a coherent foreign policy strategy for navigating the inherent dangers of the deepening relationship between the two revisionist powers. What can we glean from the current state of play on the battlefield? A good strategy starts with clear goalsand Washingtons objectives are to maintain peace and stability in both Europe and Asia. For the West to prevail, the United States must lead the fight with a strategy suited to the complex challenges we face. The answer, according to many politicians and defense experts, is that Washington must moderate its response to Russia in Europe to focus on the greater threat posed by China in the Indo-Pacific . However, with a population of just over 38 million, the nation is mostly a huge expanse of empty territory much of which is frozen for most of Europe is among the richest regions in the world. And how might that be impacting the world? China and the NATO countries have very different political systems. There is almost no circumstances where NATO and China would go to war. and 7:51 p.m. NATO allies also dominate in the air with over 20,000 total aircraft. China is not a direct threat to NATO. The U.S. Air Force (USAF) would play a supporting role in . This section is about Living in UAE and essential information you cannot live without. But beyond the goals of one leader in Moscow, it is also clear that Ukraine has suffered horrors of a historic nature. NATO is an alliance of European and North American countries. Russia's invasion of Ukraine earlier this year has caused great concern amongst NATO allies in the West. subscription, What elections in small states tell us about India, Watch Nidhi Razdan: Historic verdict by India top court, Enough of Aditya Chopra. The combined armies of NATO have almost 10,000 more main battle tanks than China does. It appears clear that the combined armies of NATO countries are stronger than China. First, Washington should increase defense spending. DON'T MISSRussian oligarch dies after 'falling from window'[INSIGHT]Putin suffers embarrassing blow as Russian missile 'malfunctions'[ANALYSIS]'Troubled' Putin plot facing annihilation[INSIGHT]. To be sure, there are risks associated with nuclear deterrence, but nuclear weapons have played a foundational role in U.S. defense strategy for three-quarters of a centuryand will likely continue to do so for decades to come. This website stores cookies on your computer. Argument: China should not support Russias illegal war., Stoltenberg said potential Chinese assistance would amount to providing (direct) support to a blatant violation of international law, and of course (as) a member of the U.N. security council China should not in any way support violation of the U.N. charter, or international law.. "This commitment, which I made here on Feb. 27 of last year, holds true," Scholz said, adding that the . This was CNBC's live blog tracking developments on the war in Ukraine on Feb.27, 2023. But the idea that, that it can be taken by force, just taken by force, is just not, is just not appropriate.. NATOs chief says the military alliance has seen some signs that China may be planning to support Russia in its war in Ukraine, and strongly urged Beijing to desist from what would be a violation of international law. Russia's forces also beat China when it comes to the number of tanks in their military. Opinion | Alliance had deployed 40,000 troops along its 2,500 kilometres long Eastern flank to deter possible Russian aggression. In addition, Xi is gauging U.S. resolve, and a weak response in Ukraine might make a Chinese move on Taiwan more likely. Simply, the enormous distance between China and any NATO member, combined with Chinas inability to project its military strength to Europe or North America means China is little direct threat to NATO. Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping as he arrives for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders meeting Nov. 11, 2014. Chinese opinion turned further against the alliance when later newspaper reports suggested the attack was a deliberate action by NATO as they thought the embassy was being used to send communications for the Yugoslav army. Finally, if youre interested in NATOs position in the modern world, check out the book Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World by H. R. McMaster. A major war in Ukraine could spill across international boundaries and threaten the seven NATO allies that border Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. In a series of tweets, Deverell said he was initially against the imposition of a no-fly zone by Nato in Ukraine, believing it would surely escalate the conflict. In addition, the United States can actively lead its allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific to develop a free world defense strategy. Nukes are out. Between the lie about not expanding NATO and the events which started one year ago, there were so many developments which cannot be overlooked. Some had hoped that the two countrys divergent geopolitical objectives, and the combined economic and political impacts from Russias protracted war would entice Chinese President Xi Jinping to reconsider whether the no limits friendship between the two nations actually did have its limit. However, it's worth noting that the U.S. alone, which is a member of NATO, has a military budget of $740.5 billion. Xi is undermining Chinas growth model by cracking down on the private sector and rolling back liberalizing reforms, and his aggressive diplomacy is upsetting international economic relationships. As democracies, NATO countries need significant buy-in from their populations in order to take on a major conflict. However, there are other factors that would likely determine the outcome of a war between NATO and China. Related Articles NATO is a stronger military force than China. have been reawakened to the danger Russia presents. As tensions rise, especially between China and key NATO members such as the US, could we see a conflict between NATO and China? Security, More than 50,000 troops and 5,000 weapons units will be present as China and Russia look to strengthen their military ties. In order to understand Chinas position on NATO, is it important to know that China sees NATO as a crucial foundation of Western global dominance, which China opposes. See today's front and back pages, download the newspaper, order back issues and use the historic Daily Express newspaper archive. Keep up with the world without stopping yours. "If you put all these [moves together], it is part of their playbook for the future invasion of Taiwan. Beijing backing Moscow should trigger a rethink of China-European relations. Click + to receive email alerts when new stories are published on Depending on where any war between China and NATO was fought, it could be a defining factor. China is not formally opposed to NATO. The repeated calls have somehow been so effective that a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that a broad bipartisan majority of Americans, 74 per cent, think the US should work with Nato to set up no-fly zones to protect Ukraine from Russian air strikes.. Trumps executive overreach on the border wall was wrong, so is Bidens student loan nonsense Enemies with poor air-defense weapons such as Russian or . Although tensions between China and the West have risen in recent years, a full-scale conflict between China and NATO is highly improbable. Russia knows that too and its forces have thus been restrained so far. Police dog debate is barking up the wrong tree Is Weiss correct? Adm. Philip Davidson, former commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, predictedChina could invade Taiwan within the next six years. An alliance between two of the worlds most powerful despots leading an axis of evil with Iran and North Korea poses a unique and immense threat to the democratic values we cherish. With a naval fleet comprised of 777 ships and two aircraft carriers, Beijing's forces dominate in the region. This would mean China could mobilize more people in a total war against NATO. Is the Biden administrations China policy too hawkish? Russia would probably want to elect a new President. With a reelection campaign on the horizon, and opposition to the war growing on the political right, Biden could soon lack both the political capital and the actual power to ensure that the U.S. sustains its current level of support for Ukraine. Home of the Daily and Sunday Express. However, that does not stop the two from going to war. but thats just an overview. U.S. interests in Europe are too significant to let them be worked out solely between Putin and the United States European allies. Twitter:@matthewkroenig. What will another year of war look like? Below is a breakdown of NATOs military strength compared to Chinas: As we can see, the combined armies of all NATO members are considerably stronger than Chinas Armed Forces. There are several reasons for this: It is almost impossible for China to attack Europe or North America. Orwell's prediction of an endless, three-way global confrontation proved premature. Watchthe conversation onFP Live, the magazines forum for live journalism, orreada condensed transcript. The U.S. Indeed, given that this new Cold War is every bit as dangerous as the last one, a meaningful increase in defense spending, focused on the 21st centurys emerging defense technologies, is in order. Nato will surely want to stay out of this conflict as long as possible. No countries in Asia are members of NATO. April 20, 2022. rs worth well over $400 billion. Nato has so far remained on the sidelines, theoretically. Matthew Kroenig is a columnist at Foreign Policy and senior director of the Atlantic Councils Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a professor in the Department of Government and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. There are some in China who hate NATO. China has stated clearly that it will reunite with Taiwan and is willing to do this by force if necessary. 7 Reasons Why Canada Is Not A Poor Country. A good strategy, however, starts with clear goals, and Washingtons objectives are to maintain peace and stability in both Europe and Asia. Russia and China flew joint bomber patrols over the Pacific. The threat posed by China is also serious. All rights reserved. But the inducements encourage U.S. companies to invest only at homenot elsewhere. Now, lets look at the data. China sees Taiwan as one of its own provinces, and has even vowed to use force to bring the island back within its influence. They have been careful in their strikes to avoid civilian casualties. It is not clear if NATO could defeat China in a war. China has almost 150 less warships than NATO does. Alex says. Ukrainian . Create an FP account to save articles to read later and in the FP mobile app. China, as an authoritarian power, can mobilize its population behind a conflict more easily. China and Russia vs NATO. Is Weiss correct? Join the conversation on this and other recent Foreign Policy articles when you subscribe now. The United States also fears that China will lend lethal aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine, a worry that was underscored on Wednesday when China's leader, Xi Jinping, met in Beijing with . But beyond the goals of one leader in Moscow, it is also clear that Ukraine has suffered horrors of a historic nature. In September 2018, Russia hosted the militaries of China and Mongolia as a part of the Vostok 2018 military exercise. Its total in 2021 was estimated to be $801bn, according to Statista. A new group tries to save democracy from Trumpism He told Deutsche Welle: "In the first part of August, China conducted missile tests, large-scale air and sea exercises, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and economic coercion against Taiwan. The US and other countries have already supplied Ukraine with weapons, anti-aircraft systems and intelligence capabilities. Global Affairs Explained participants in a number of affiliate programs, including by Amazon Services LLC. Deterring China and Russia at the same time will not be easy, but it is better than pretending Washington can deal with one major-power rival or the other at its convenience. Now, NATO is accusing Russia of using "coercion, subversion, aggression and annexation" to extend its reach. This is a simple match. Others would be unwilling to join a US-China war, seeing it as not in their interest. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the world's biggest military alliance really kicked in after Russia's invasion of Ukraine a year ago. OTOH, it's likely that China would hold onto Taiwan, thus they would likely claim victory for the Sino-Russian side. 4 Feb 2022. NATO. The rise of American-made chatbots has kicked off a flurry of Chinese activity. An expert's point of view on a current event. With 14,061 planes (vs Russias 3,212) and the Navys 17,781 ships (including 11 aircraft carrier) vs Russias 4,650 vessels (one aircraft carrier), the US clearly has an edge. Instead, the anti-democratic alliance between the two countries which is resentful of American hegemony and committed to tearing down the liberal world order that has prevailed for more than eight decades is growing stronger. Jessica Chen Weiss, formerly a senior advisor for policy planning at the State Department under the Biden administration, makes the case that the United States is becoming consumed by competition with China, a strategy that could lead to dangerous conflict. Watchthe conversation onFP Live, the magazines forum for live journalism, orreada condensed transcript. Asked whether this was his administration's policy, Mr Biden replied: Yes Thats the commitment we made. Weekly update on whats driving U.S. national security policy. Make no mistake, this goes far beyond the current conflict in Ukraine. Sen. Chris Murphy, a Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, told NBC News on Tuesday that the U.S. needs to be careful not to send too much military hardware to Ukraine or it could risk . Affiliate programs mean if you follow some links on this site and make a purchase, at no additional cost to you, Global Affairs Explained will receive a commission. The United States is al. Weve linked to it on Amazon.com. NATO provides a collective security guarantee to its members, meaning that all will come to the defense of any NATO country that is attacked. In addition, the United States should provide strategic capabilities like its nuclear umbrella; global conventional strike capabilities, including hypersonic missiles; and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. Wood said he does not know if that is necessarily true, but said Russia . This year, the United States will spend $778 billion on defense compared to only $310 billion in Russia and China. Putin has shown a clear interest in resurrecting the former Russian Empire, and other vulnerable Eastern European countriesPoland, Romania, or the Baltic statesmight be next. Washingtons commitment to Taiwan hasnt been sold to the American public. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), founded in 1949, is a military alliance of 30 North American and European countries. The UK is the second biggest overall spender in Nato, putting nearly 50bn into defence annually, compared with Germany's 45bn, France's 42bn and Italy's 20bn. Biden should follow his example and plan to defend U.S. interests in Europe and the Indo-Pacific at the same time. Beyond Russia and Ukraine, China encourages "the U.S., the NATO members to all be engaged in the peace talks," Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said. Opinion | Needs to Talk About the Risk of War With China, The Deep Roots of Pakistans Terrorism Crisis, The Conversation About Ukraine Is Cracking Apart. Actually, there are a two clear reasons why China is not in NATO: Only countries in Europe or North America can join NATO. "If Russia wins this war, he will have confirmation that violence works. It is not in their strategic interest to do so and there is little reason why they would. Extensive protests were held across the country against NATO. Usernames may be updated at any time and must not contain inappropriate or offensive language. Fri, Feb 24, 2023 LOGIN Subscribe for $1 NATO's main headquarters are located in Brussels. If Putin had hoped to weaken NATO, the very opposite has happened, with Finland and Sweden on the cusp of joining the transatlantic military alliance. But Russia is just so much less powerful and poorer and more fragile, even than it used to be. Only FP subscribers can submit questions for FP Live interviews. Moreover, if Russian President Vladimir Putin succeeds in Ukraine, why would he stop there? A successful Russian incursion into a NATO allys territory could mean the end of the Western alliance and the credibility of U.S. security commitments globally. Other Nato members dont even come close to those massive numbers. China claims Taiwan as an integral part of its territory. However, the Chinese government does not have an official policy against NATO and it cannot be said that everyone in China has a hatred for the alliance. China's increased aggression against Taiwan and in the South China Sea is another point of hostility. In recent decades China has risen to become a major global power. 22/23 SLIDES . Unfortunately, Washington does not get to decide how its adversaries sequence their aggression. China refused to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Owner of this site is not responsible for potential mistakes or lacks of data. Essential analysis of the stories shaping geopolitics on the continent. the outcome for the U.S. was not a good one, a new report revealed this week. On May 7th 1999, four NATO missiles hit the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, killing three Chinese journalists. WARSAW, Poland -- NATO's chief said Wednesday that the military alliance has seen some signs that China may be planning to support Russia in its war in Ukraine, and strongly urged Beijing to desist from what would be a violation of international law. Who would win in an ultimate showdown between the liberal democra. The Biden administration initially hoped to put relations with Russia on a stable and predictable footing to focus on China, but Putin had other ideas, as the world is now seeing in Ukraine. It is unlikely, although not impossible, that China launches a pre-emptive strike against US forces in Asia as part of an assault on Taiwan. Allies do need, therefore, to step up and do more for their defense, but they will not do it on their own if the United States threatens to leave Europe. Despite fresh salvos of Western sanctions, Tehran and Moscow are buddying up on defense ties. The two countries share a land border and they signed the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. In short, publishing a defense strategy that can only handle one of the United States great-power rivals (which is what is expected from the forthcoming national defense strategy) is planning to fail. Ok, weve assessed Chinas military strength against NATOs. And they've deployed recently upgraded . Al Nisr Publishing LLC 2023. Rose-colored glasses dont change facts about inflation Moscow's military has over 12,000 at its disposal compared to Beijing's 5000. Currently, China focuses on domestic weapon designs and manufacturing, while still importing certain military products from Russia, such as jet engines. Otherwise, the planet may not survive this time this MAD situation. US President Joe Biden vowed in May that Washington will defend Taiwan if China attacks. NATO is also able to add many more reservists than China, contributing to its overall military strength. Global Affairs Explained is an ongoing project aiming to provide concise guides to world events. China is also one contiguous territory, whereas NATO is divided across the North Atlantic. Last fall, the U.S. Air Force played out a war scenario with China, in which China begins its attack by deploying a biological weapon throughout the Indo-Pacific region. However, not all NATO countries would defend Taiwan. From NATO's point of view, Russia has to be made to pay a high price if it invades Ukraine, to deter it from advancing further. Copyright 2019 ArmedForces.eu. China and NATO are also both nuclear powers, meaning both could be destroyed in a war. The NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade is a major cause of hatred for the alliance among some of the Chinese population. Its leaders know that a war with Russia will be MAD (mutually assured destruction). The country's foreign minister, Joseph Wu, has said this week that China's recent military exercises show that an invasion is being planned. The presence of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in Europe helped deter the massive Soviet Red Army for decades. FPs Ravi Agrawal spoke with two of the very best Russia experts:Angela Stent, a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the author ofPutins World: Russia Against the West and With the Rest, and Michael Kofman, the research program director of the Russia studies program at the Center for Naval Analyses. In general, China would like Western influence to be rolled-back and for it to create its own spheres of influence. Here's the latest. But its not just the United States. While Russia desperately needs China to stabilize its economy amid unprecedented sanctions, President Xis calculus is that Russia is useful ballast in his larger battle with the U.S. and our allies. Test yourself on the week of Feb. 25: Nigeria votes, Finland builds a border wall, and Israel escalates repression. That is the reason Western leaders have been ruling out the possibility of imposing a no-fly zone. Crucially, China strongly opposes the formation of a NATO-type alliance in Asia. Chinese President Xi Jinping has also used his military to aggravate neighbouring Asian countries as well as the West. Russia has a conventional war advantage with more than 22,710 battle tanks. Further, if Putin is defeated in Ukraine, China will likely lose access to cheap Russian energy, and will have a mercurial, humiliated and nuclear-armed dictator on its northern border. FPs Ravi Agrawal spoke with two of the very best Russia experts:Angela Stent, a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the author ofPutins World: Russia Against the West and With the Rest, and Michael Kofman, the research program director of the Russia studies program at the Center for Naval Analyses. This is a key reason why China is not a member state. Watch the conversation or read the condensed transcript. The two countries share a land border and they signed the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. United States, You can unsubscribe at any time. However, China is thousands of miles away from any NATO member and it is almost impossible to conceive China launching an assault on a NATO member state. A hypothetical military alliance between China and Russia. If you simply compare the size of the Chinese armed forces against the combined strength of NATO, it would appear that China would lose a war. More ways to stay updated on global news: By submitting your email, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive email correspondence from us. If big boys China and Russia can work together, others can join and feel . The West has its problems, obviously, as does everyone in this pandemic. Managing public perception about the war to control the narrative and maintain support seems to have required a divorce between what NATO officials are telling Ukraine privately and what they are telling the public they are telling Ukraine. Opportunistic firms in Asia and Europe have already begun to relocate investments to the United States. Cue the protests from other parts of the globe: A chorus of nations are accusing Washington of fostering unfair competition. Weekly update on developments in India and its neighbors. But many in the West have called for action citing a bigger danger if Russias offensive in Ukraine is not checked now. As the Russia-Ukraine war continues beyond its first year, the anti-war movement is growing. Immediately, the Biden administration can send a strong message to Beijing and Moscow by ramping up the number of U.S. soldiers we have stationed in Asia, as a deterrent to Chinese designs on Taiwan. Well my friend is actually in the army an officer. The pause in releasing Bidens defense strategy provides an opportunity to go back to the drawing board and get this right. Ukraines economy and infrastructure have been dealt blows that will take decades to recover from. During the Cold War, NATO was a major anti-communist alliance. Moreover, the United States could go so far as to double defense spending (currently 2.8 percent of GDP) and still remain below its Cold War average (close to 7 percent of GDP). 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Privacy Policy. Delivered Thursday. They do simulations or war plans. That is not clear and may not be as assured. If you are interested in the rise of China and its relationship with the West, we highly recommend the book The Long Game: Chinas Grand Strategy to Displace American Order byRush Doshi. In China, public opinion was outraged by the attack on its diplomatic mission. In September 2018, Russia hosted the militaries of China and Mongolia as a part of the Vostok 2018 military exercise. One of the main objectives of NATO is to protect democratic countries. Ukraine is, of course, not a member and therefore the alliance is not obliged to defend it. It is a fundamental shift for a military alliance born in the Cold War and scrambling to respond to a newly reshaped world . Delivered Thursday. China has around two million soldiers while Russia has just 850,000. I agree to abide by FPs comment guidelines. Moreover, the United States is not France; it is not compelled to make gut-wrenching strategic choices about its national security due to constrained resources. As this months summit between Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping shows, Moscow and Beijing are forging a closer strategic partnership, including on military matters. They may not be able to stay out of this for long. This should include incorporating key allies into military planning, sharing responsibilities, and devising a rational division of labor for weapons acquisition. Their predictions are that NATO would win but with devastating losses. Last week Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, threw themselves into preparations to escalate, wage and win the next phase of warfare in Ukraine. Finnish MPs to vote on speeding up Nato accession process; Kremlin dismisses Ukraine denial it sent drones to attack targets within Russia A Ukrainian military spokesperson has said that "there . 'The definitive answer if the U.S. military doesn't change course is that we're going to lose fast,' Air Force Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote, the . The United States possesses 24 percent of global GDP compared to a combined 19 percent in China and Russia. It has over 1.4 billion people, compared to the combined populations of NATO countries 946 million. China, Russia and South Africa are holding naval drills in the Indian Ocean this week. For over a century now the nations of the continent have been some of the most advanced and prosperous globally.